A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
